The Industry Confidence Index (ICI) rose 0.8 point in August to 100.3 points. In quarterly moving averages, the increase was 0.2 point. The data were released today (29) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV Ibre).
According to economist Stéfano Pacini, from the institute, the high indicates the good level of activity maintained by the sector in the third quarter, with the improvement of the business environment influenced by the decompression of costs with the drop in fuel and energy prices.
“Demand levels are still positive and inventories remain balanced, despite the still problematic scenario regarding the supply of some types of inputs. This favorable scenario is reflected in the still favorable forecasts for the evolution of employment in the sector in the three months. In the other items that measure expectations for the near future, there is some caution on the part of businessmen in the face of a second semester of elections and maintenance of higher interest rates.”
components
The data show that confidence rose in nine of the 19 industrial segments monitored by the survey in August. The Current Situation Index (ISA) advanced 1.4 points and reached 102.8 points. The Expectations Index (IE) rose 0.3 points and reached 97.9 points.
According to FGV Ibre, the best performance in the ISA was verified in the indicator that measures the level of inventories, with a decrease of 2.9 points, to 96.7 points. This places the indicator in the neutral region, indicating that stocks would be balanced.
The indicator that measures the perception of entrepreneurs in relation to the current situation of business rose 0.6 point, to 101.7 points. And the degree of satisfaction of companies with the level of demand increased by 0.4 points, to 103.2 points.
In terms of expectations, the main influence came from the business trend for the next six months, with an increase of 3.0 points in August, to 96.9 points. Despite this, the Ibre FVG points out that the indicator remains at a low level at historical levels.
The indicator that measures optimism with the evolution of physical production in the following three months dropped 3.0 points, to 92.1 points. The result is the lowest since March this year, when the indicator reached 90.3 points.
On the other hand, employment expectations in the following three months rose for the fifth consecutive month, from 0.7 point to 104.6 points, reaching the best result since October 2021, when the indicator stood at 108.1 points.
The Industrial Installed Capacity Utilization Level remained stable in August, with a variation of -0.1 percentage point, to 82.2%.
