August 25, 2022, 4:00 AM
August 25, 2022, 4:00 AM
_How can this loan of US$400 million be understood to support the TGN?
This data shows the enormous difficulties that the national treasury has to face the investment projects or expenses that it has. For more than nine years, the Government has had a public deficit, which means that it spends much more than the income that comes from taxes.
So, the Government, not having its own genuine income, resorts to increasing the external debt. Let us remember that this debt, in 2006, when the MAS entered the Government, was 64% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the friendly countries forgave us the external debt and the international organizations. In 2007, this debt fell to 17% of GDP, coinciding with the increase in international gas and oil prices.
Now, that external debt has risen from 2007 to the present by up to 31% with respect to GDP and the Government has been borrowing from international organizations, in this case US$400 million from CAF, recently there were another US$400 million of the World Bank and adds the external debt precisely to be able to face investment issues and other projects.
It is important to see the proportions. The external debt is 31% of the GDP, but the public deficit is about 10% of the GDP, about US$4,000 million. For this year, US$ 5,000 million of public investment has been offered; last year it was US$4,000 million and only US$2,600 million were executed. This year, the promise is $5,000 million. Approximately, Bolivia needs about $10,000 million of public investment and to close its public deficit. So, US$400 million is between 5% and 6% of GDP, it is little, but it shows the enormous fiscal difficulties that the Government has to close the gap and continue operating.
_But the government ensures that all the indicators are shielded, right?
When you go to the doctor, there are many tests that can be done. The Government goes to the doctor and tells him, ‘my body temperature is very good, I am growing at 6.2%’. In addition, he tells her that inflation is very low, at 1.6% so far, and that means that the red blood cells are fine. Also, he tells her that the unemployment rate is 4.2% and that means the sugar level in the economy is fine.
So, with three or four very simple indicators, it makes a whole propaganda of well-being and growth prospects. It is a superficial diagnosis and when a tomography is done with deeper analysis, the tumors of the public deficit of 9% are seen for nine consecutive years; we will see problems in the reserves and that we have lost US$10,000 million in international reserves and the economy has become reprimarized, there has been very little productive diversification. The economy has been strangled.
_What should the commander of the ship do to avoid crashing?
This has been going on since 2014. The government must stop the macroeconomic narcissism that is worrying and face the crisis, they look at some indicators, they give each other little kisses or eyes, but they do not see reality. For that, it must significantly rationalize the public sector, cut spending, avoid privileges, lower advertising costs, optimize investment and, if there is a lack of income, tax groups that pay very little or nothing, such as coca growers, large mining cooperatives, gigantic commercial sectors. and recompose your tax issue by getting genuine income.
Exports of primary products from agro-industrial groups such as those from Santa Cruz must be encouraged. Generate exports in the short term by supporting the private, productive sector, avoiding expenses. There is no bonanza anymore.
