The reference prices of fuels on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico in the US accentuated in the last two weeks the downward trend that was observed during July.
Although the international market gave a hand last month, it was not enough to reverse the existing lag in local fuel rates, and finally the Executive Power decided to keep prices frozen during August.
In a few more days the government will have to decide what will happen to the rates in september. A first photo of the new measurement window shows that in 14 days – between July 26 and August 8 – prices continued to fall.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) data processed by The Observer indicate that the mean value for the simile of the naphtha Uruguayan became $4.33 cheaper per liter, and went from $36,599 to $32,269 (-11.9%). For Super 95 gasoline, the most consumed in the country, Ursea takes the average international price of two types of gasoline: CBOB Regular 87 and CBOB Premium 93.
For his part, the gasoil It is based on the price of Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD 62). The closest possible update to what the Import Parity Price (PPI) would indicate shows that the average price per liter fell by $3,291, and went from $38.9 to $35,609 (-8.5%).
The values handled in this note are an approximation to what happened in the international market and take into account two central variables: the daily dynamics of prices in dollars in the US and the value of the exchange rate locally.
This last component of the equation has also played in favor, with the dollar falling around $1.5 in the last two weeks. This is positive for Ancap’s accounts, another of the aspects that the Executive Power usually takes into account at the end of the month.
Last month, although the technical report of the Regulatory Unit for Energy and Water Services (Ursea) marked a drop compared to the previous month’s survey, and the gap between Ancap’s sale price and the one set by the international market, the government decided to leave rates unchanged because there was a lag that compromised the entity’s finances and affected the performance of public accounts.
To date, fuel prices in the domestic market have been corrected on five occasions below what the international reference indicated, and on two occasions (July-August) they have been frozen. For this reason, the rates to the public today drag a gap with respect to the last PPI, which is $2.5 in gasoline and $4.6 in diesel.according to data from the Ministry of Industry.
MIEM
Given the volatility that characterizes the oil markets, it will be necessary to wait for the evolution of prices in the days that still remain before the closing of the current measurement window -August 25-. Only then will it be possible to determine if the decrease is confirmed and if it is of sufficient magnitude to cover the gap and allow for a reduction in the retail price.
MIEM
Brent price
the barrel of oil Brent For delivery in October, it rose slightly and was quoted in the range of US$97 per barrel this Wednesday, thus remaining below US$100 so far in August.
