China’s trade balance surplus hit a new record in July on the back of a sharp jump in exports, providing relief to a slowing economy following coronavirus resurgence lockdown measures.
According to government data, trade surplus reached $101 billion last month -the highest figure since the series began in 1987- with the value of exports in dollars rising 18%.
The figure for exports thus exceeded the 14.1% estimated by economistsaccording to the Bloomberg agency.
This is a positive fact for the second largest economy in the world, since the country is going through months marked by the slowdown in activity after the restriction measures due to the outbreak of coronavirus.
Likewise, there were concerns that the slowdown in the global economy would directly impact the demand for products from China.
The greatest strength in exports was in automobiles, steel products and textilesaccording to an analysis by Goldman Sachs bank.
In the case of cars and steel products, exports rose 64% and 41.2% annually, respectively.
Meanwhile, the destinations that achieved the greatest growth in shipments were the ten countries belonging to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the 27 of the European Union, where they increased 33.5% and 23.2%, respectively.
In the same way, there was a significant increase in Chinese exports to Russia that rose 22.2%strengthened by the vacuum left by Western firms after their exodus due to the war in Ukraine.
However, economists remain cautious about the outlook for the rest of the year, with some arguing that the rebound in exports is due to shipments that were pending after bottlenecks at Chinese ports were reduced.
Similarly, they warn of the possibility of a recession in Europe and other commercial allies of the country.
“The health of the Chinese economy in the second half of 2022 will largely depend on whether or not domestic demand can keep up with weaker external demand,” said Larry Hu, head of China economics at the Macquaire Group.
Meanwhile, for the economist Zhang Zhiwei, “The strong jump in exports continues to help China’s economy in a difficult year where domestic demand remains weak.”
The latter is reflected, for example, in the data on imports that only expanded by 2.3% annually, below the estimated 4%.
Consumption in China was impacted this year by successive quarantines and restrictions under the Xi Jinping government’s “zero covid” policy, which discouraged people from going out to spend.
Although Beijing established a growth target of 5.5% at the beginning of the year, the consensus among economists and organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is that it will not be met.
In the case of the Washington-based agency, its latest World Economic Outlook report forecast growth of 3.3% at the end of July, compared to the 4.4% it estimated in April.
