To Asian affairs expert Marisela Connelly, Nicaragua’s break with Taiwan and the reestablishment of relations with the People’s Republic of China is the conjunction of several circumstances: a Chinese escalation in the diplomatic battle between Beijing and Taipei; the interest of the Asian giant to consolidate itself in Central America; and Daniel Ortega’s “logical” alliance with “a one-party regime.”
Connelly, Professor and researcher at the Center for Asian and African Studies of El Colegio de México, pointed out that “The Nicaraguan regime – which has been questioned because of the way it has conducted elections and because of the time that (Daniel) Ortega has been president – it is logical that he will go to another country, where he also has a one-party regime , and to abandon an ally (Taiwan), who is a democratic ally ”.
On December 9, the Government of Nicaragua broke diplomatic relations with Taiwan, its main bilateral donor in the last three years, and recognized the People’s Republic of China as the “only legitimate Government.”
In an interview with the program Tonight Y CONFIDENTIAL, the expert announced that mainland China “will exceed” the amount of money that Taiwan gave Nicaragua. “It is the way in which the People’s Republic of China wants to thank them for finally establishing diplomatic relations with them.”
To what do you attribute the Ortega regime’s break in relations with Taiwan at this time, and the reestablishment of diplomatic relations with China?
We can see it from the point of view of the conflict between China and Taiwan. For many years there has been this fight for diplomatic partners, and it varies depending on how the relationship between the island and the People’s Republic of China is, because when the island has been governed by the Kuomintang or Nationalist Party, it has had a good relationship with the Government of the People’s Republic, has strengthened economic relations; So there for that fight to win diplomatic allies, they make a truce. But when there is a situation, like the one we are experiencing right now, in which the Democratic Progressive Party, which is a party against unification with China, is in power, then things change, and especially now that Tsai is president. Ing-wen, who is a woman who has long fought for Taiwan’s independence.
This situation has made China begin to follow these attack tactics: “If you do not want to give in to dialogue, then I will start working to remove diplomatic allies from you.” Since 2016, when this president came to govern, China has removed several diplomatic allies from her. In Central America, Panama moved (in 2017) to the side of the People’s Republic of China; and now we are seeing that Nicaragua is also breaking with Taiwan.
China’s first donation to Nicaragua was a batch of 200,000 covid-19 vaccines, out of the 1,000,000 it has pledged. What comes next?
China is going to try to help the Nicaraguan government a lot, because when a government breaks with Taiwan and establishes relations with China, it always begins to finance it. In this case, the issue of vaccines, due to the situation with covid-19; and it is also going to give them other types of economic support, because that is the way in which the People’s Republic of China wants to thank them for finally establishing diplomatic relations with them.
Nicaragua received about 30 million dollars a year in cooperation from Taiwan. What kind of support can the Government of Ortega of the People’s Republic of China expect now?
Taiwan gives a lot of money to its allies in Central America, who are very important to it, (but) it also gives them other types of support because it does not want to lose them. The People’s Republic of China is going to increase financial and economic support to Nicaragua, which will surely exceed what the Government of Taiwan was giving it.
Specialists speak of a kind of honeymoon, in which there will be that considerable help from China, but then another type of relationship is established in which the interest that China may have prevails, over what it can obtain in return. How do you see it?
China knows that it is important that Nicaragua has decided to establish diplomatic relations with it, especially in this context, where we are seeing that the United States is also playing with its own cards; It is attracting Taiwan and is opening the doors for it to have a greater international space.
In this conference that President (Joe) Biden gave on democracies, he invited Taiwan, and American officials have gone to Taiwan. That for China is taboo, because before the governments of the United States did not dare to challenge China, in that sense. China regards Taiwan as a province, which sooner or later will return to its power, and which, therefore, does not have the quality of a state.
Would there be an interest on the part of China in investments in Nicaragua? President Ortega, for example, recently spoke of the canal concession that he granted to a Chinese private businessman, which he classified as a living project, although in reality the execution of such a project never began.
I think that on this occasion, China is going to be interested in having that project (canal) be worked on again, although it has many problems, such as the environmental and ecological issue. China is going to follow this strategy of having a greater presence in the Nicaraguan economy. China is very interested in, precisely, having spaces where it can grow crops and, in that sense, it will try to take advantage of this new relationship it has with Nicaragua.
How is it interpreted that the government breaks relations with Taiwan, but has granted Nicaraguan nationality to the outgoing Taiwanese ambassador and his wife? Would it have some kind of repercussion?
No, because finally, looking at it from the perspective of China, that is already something circumstantial, which does not have so much to do with the interests that Nicaragua now has with China; so that’s secondary. Perhaps they did it in an effort not to make Taiwanese feel so bad; But this was really a very strong blow for Taiwan, because the People’s Republic of China is tightening that fence, which will make Taiwan very isolated at an international level.
How does it affect geopolitically that Taiwan loses one more ally in Central America, and China already has four, and that Ortega now appears aligned with China?
For China, Central America is very important. He has close ties with Costa Rica, since he established relations with her in 2007; It also has very close ties with Panama, specific interests in the Panama Canal, investments. The fact that China now has that official presence in Nicaragua again will make it begin to outline, even more, the strategy that it will follow in Central America as a whole; because now comes the perspective that Honduras, at some point, will also break relations with Taiwan and establish them with China.
In this scenario, knowing how the Chinese leaders handle themselves, they will establish a regional strategy to try to combine their interests with the interests of the countries that have diplomatic relations with them.
Do you think that this regional strategy is of concern to the United States, that new reality in which China is advancing in its Central American presence? What reactions can be expected from the United States?
China does not want to provoke the United States. In fact, since it started with such a strong presence in Latin America, the Chinese government has always said that it is not trying to challenge the power of the United States, and that all it wants is to increase its economic and trade relations with the region.
The United States does not want Taiwan to continue losing allies; then, it is very likely that it will also begin to offer some kind of help to the countries that still have relations with Taiwan, so that they do not break up and establish them with China. The United States factor is very important.
Do you think that this Nicaraguan alignment with China, and the growing rapprochement with Russia, generates any kind of concern and reaction from the United States about Nicaragua and about the Nicaraguan crisis?
The United States will continue to pressure the Nicaraguan government, with its severe criticism. It will try to use all the instruments it has at hand to prevent China from continuing to have a greater presence, and above all, from having greater influence in all these countries.
The Nicaraguan regime – which has been questioned because of the way in which it has carried out elections and because of the time that (Daniel) Ortega has been president – is logical that he will go to another country, where he also has a one-party regime , and abandon an ally (Taiwan), which is a democratic ally, as the United States emphasizes so much. So, there may be, within the United States, that perception that perhaps the interests of China, and of Russia itself, are uniting with the interests of this type of government that we have in the region.
