Washington, (EFE) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that Russia will feel more the effects of the sanctions imposed against it for the invasion of Ukraine as of 2023, while it is resisting better this year.
In its latest review of the global economic outlook, the IMF improved its forecast for Russia this year, although it worsened next year: in 2022 it expects a fall of 6% (compared to 8.5 calculated in April) and in 2023 it expects a setback 3.5% (compared to the 4.7 that I calculated before).
There are two reasons why Russia is not falling as much as expected, as explained at a press conference by the Fund’s Research Director, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
On the one hand, the measures taken by the country to stabilize its financial sector have been “very effective” and have “helped support the national economy” and on the other, the country has benefited from oil and gas exports to the rest of the world, especially to Europe, in a context of rising energy prices such as the current one.
Along the same lines, the deputy director of the Research Department, Petya Koeva, said at this press conference that domestic demand has been strong in Russia, thanks to fiscal support measures and also to actions to restore confidence in the system. financial, «which did not seem possible at the beginning of the crisis».
In the case of 2023, Gourinchas considered that it will be that year when Russia will notice to a greater extent the numerous sanctions approved against the country for the invasion of Ukraine.
“We believe that the impact of the sanctions will lead to a further deterioration in 2023,” said the Fund’s economist.
