On July 20 in Colombia not only commemorates the date it broke the famous vase of Llorente and led to the cry of independence in 1810, it is also the date on which the Congress of the Republic is installed.
(See: Contracts and treaties in discord in the splicing process).
This Wednesday, the president Iván Duque will install the Legislative for the period 2022-2026, and the new Government, that of Gustav Petro, will have significant support to pass its reforms. Although the appointment of the president of the House of Representatives is still pending and which parties will preside over each commission in said corporation, as well as the members, the government has already given the necessary agreements to process their projects.
Last week it became known how the presidencies of the Senate were defined by commissions, where the Historical Pact was left with three of them: the second commission, where international politics and foreign trade are legislated, among other issues; as well as the economic commissions, the third and the fourth.
The third commission discusses finances and public credit, taxes and contributions, as well as laws of the Bank of the Republic and the regulation of financial activity. The fourth commission focuses on the budget rule and fiscal control, among other issues.
(See: The challenges of Dane during the government of Gustavo Petro).
In the case of the Senate, Petro would have at least 63% of the votes. This, if one takes into account that of the 108 senators it would have the 16 seats of the Pact, 15 liberals, 14 of the Green Alliance Coalition-Hope Center, 5 o’clock Commons Party and the 2 of the indigenous senators, and also, eventually, to 16 conservative senators.
Thus, in the third commission, where there are 17 members from the Senate (and 31 in the Chamber), Petro would have a majority in the upper house, with at least 11 of the seats. In the fourth commission, where 15 senators (and 27 representatives) enter, he would also have about 10 supports in the Senate alone.
As for the other commissions, the Liberal Party kept the First, where constitutional reforms, territorial organization, among others, are discussed; the Green Alliance won the presidency of the Fifth, in which environment and agricultural issues are discussed, while the Sixth Commission, communications, technology and services, was left to the Conservative Party. The Seventh, that of labor and health matters, will be commanded by a parliamentary bloc between The U, Radical Change and Mira.
Gustavo Petro, newly elected president of Colombia
The experts point out that this first legislature will be key, and that the elected government has support that will facilitate the processing of key reforms, such as the tax reform, and later, the National Development Plan, but they recognize that not everything will be rosy.
(See: Director of the Dian chosen by Petro explains tax details).
“The commissions that have decision-making power and assign budgets and others are the third and fourth. So the Historical Pact has a very clear strategy, and they are moving very judiciously to have the capacity to pass the reforms and try to pass the Budget and Development Plan within the lines they want.“, Explain Andres Davila, Professor of Political Science at the U. Javeriana.
Dávila points out that the Historical Pact has been able to form a great majority coalition, which can last a long time, depending on how it is administered. “In that there is no great difference with what Álvaro Uribe and also Juan Manuel Santos did at the time, who had a very solid coalition. The movement towards the center is very clear, and there are very key players, like Roy Barreras. Gustavo Petro knows Congress from the inside, that’s why he relied on figures like him“, He says.
From elsewhere, Mauricio Jaramillo, Professor of Political Science at the U. del Rosario, highlights that “A priori, this mega coalition that has achieved the Historical Pact, in theory gives the government a comfortable margin of maneuver between independents and pro-government”.
Jaramillo also points out that “the entire government depends on the tax reform”, because this is the one that would give the resources to the next administration for all social policy. “Without tax there is no social policy, and without tax reform, as happened to Duque, Colombia runs the risk of being punished in the markets and with risk rating agencies“, said.
For the teacher, the tax “is symbolically the sign that the left can govern responsibly.”
(See: The challenges facing the Petro government with the rise of the dollar).
Floralba Padron, Research professor in the Department of Constitutional Law of the U. Externado and member of the group on political affairs, electoral and parliamentary law, recognizes that in addition to the tax reform, the other key reform is comprehensive rural reform. “This includes what is the implementation of the first point of the Peace Agreement, which implies from multipurpose cadastre, the definition of productive lands, and put them to producePadron says.
Likewise, the expert emphasizes that “Another fundamental project is the National Development Plan, which is the government’s roadmap, and it is what determines what will be executed. That must be processed at the beginning of 2023, but before that there is a pre-electoral phase”, and that another key project, about which the president has talked a lot, It is the Ministry of Equality and the Ministry of Peace.
Another element that could be problematic, according to the academic, are the seats of victims. “For the commissions to work and be valid, Congress must be well constituted, and until the seats of the victims are integrated, this can invalidate the actions of these”.
LAURA LUCIA BECERRA ELEJALDE
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