80% of Venezuelans believe that President Nicolás Maduro guarantees peace, while 15% think of the opposition as an option.
This data is derived from the latest public opinion study carried out by the Centre for Measurement and Interpretation of Statistical Data (Cmide 50.1), to which we had access.
The study was conducted between July 1 and 4 on 1,200 people registered in the Electoral Registry throughout the country.
As for willingness to vote, 52% said they were very sure they would vote in the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for July 28.
The trend in voting intention towards the candidate Nicolás Maduro is experiencing “sustained growth” among those who say they will vote on June 28, the study concludes. This growth increased 2.6 points from May to July. That is, 54.2% said in May that they would vote for Maduro and now in July that intention is at 56.8%.
The same scenario was measured in opposition candidate Edmundo González and a decrease was observed among those who expressed their intention to vote for that option. This intention decreased 4.4 points from May to July. That is, from 19.6% that González had in May, he fell to 15.2%, says the Cmide 50.1 study.
The remaining eight candidates account for 14.3% of voting intention.
Willingness to vote decreases
The public opinion research firm found that willingness to vote has declined. Those who said they were very sure they would vote in May, which was 62%, fell to 50.8% in July, which is a decrease of 11.2 percentage points.
And that 18% who said “I am not going to vote” in May increased to 33.3% in July, that is, there was an increase of 15.3 percentage points.
As for perceptions, there is a growing trend among those who believe that Maduro will win the presidential election, with that sector reaching 75.8% in July. That is, the belief that Nicolás Maduro will win the elections is 19 percentage points above the voting intention, which is 56.8%.
Another aspect measured by the polling firm is national peace. In this regard, 79.8% of those interviewed stated that Maduro is the candidate who most guarantees peace in Venezuela.
Finally, Cmide 50.1 cross-referenced data extracted from the survey, which led them to conclude that:
-Nicolás Maduro will win the presidential elections with 56% of the valid votes
-The principle of the vote economy for candidate Nicolás Maduro will be fulfilled. (“People are voting for the winner, because they don’t want to lose their vote.”).
-There will be a shift in voting intention from the opposition towards abstention, estimated at 45%.
