The increase in Brazilian exports to China offset the drop caused by American tariffs, which began in August, with a surcharge of up to 50% on Brazilian sales to the United States.
From August to November, the value of exports to China grew 28.6% compared to the same period in 2024, while those destined for the United States fell 25.1%.
Similar behavior is observed in relation to the volume of external sales. When the destination is Chinese ports and airports, expansion reaches 30%. For the United States, a drop of 23.5%.
What differentiates the behavior of values and volumes is the price of exported products.
The data is part of the Foreign Trade Indicator (Icomex), released this Thursday (18) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre) of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV).
The study is an analysis of data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (Mdic).
China is Brazil’s main trading partner, ahead of the United States. According to Icomex, the participation of China, which receives around 30% of Brazilian exports, contributed to offsetting the drop in sales to the United States.
“[O presidente americano Donald] Trump overestimated the United States’ ability to cause general damage to Brazilian exports”, states the report.
Impacted sectors
The sectors that had the biggest drops in exports to the United States in the period from August to November were:
- Extraction of non-metallic minerals: -72.9%
- Beverage manufacturing: -65.7%
- Manufacture of tobacco products: -65.7%
- Extraction of metallic minerals: -65.3%
- Forest production: -60.2%
- Manufacture of metal products, except machinery and equipment: -51.2%
- Manufacturing of wood products: -49.4%
Annual behavior
The FGV survey notes that the volume of sales to the United States grew continuously from April to July, whenever the comparison is with the same month in 2024. However, with the entry into force of the tariff, four months of decline followed.
Change in export volume to the United States in 2025, compared to the same month in 2024:
- April: +13.3%
- May: +9%
- June: +8.5%
- July: +6.7%
- August: -12.7%
- September: -16.6%
- October: -35.3%
- November: -28%
Exports to China showed a jump after the tariffs started:
- April: +6.4%
- May: +8.1%
- June: +10.3%
- July: −0.3%
- August: +32.7%
- September: +15.2%
- October: +32.7%
- November: +42.8%
Associate researcher at Ibre/FGV Lia Valls points out that one of the factors that led to the increase in Chinese exports was the shipment of soybeans, which was concentrated in the second half of the year.
“At a time when exports to the United States were falling, it was the moment that exports to China began to increase more and had an impact on the country’s global exports”, he explained to Brazil Agency.
In the year to November, the increase in Brazil’s total exports was 4.3% compared to the same 11 months in 2024.
Argentina
Icomex also shows the performance of exports to our third main trading partner, Argentina. From August to November, sales to the country grew 5% in value and 7.8% in volume, compared to the same period last year.
Lia Valls points out that this increase is not decisive in offsetting the effects of tariffs.
“Argentina’s participation in the Brazilian agenda is very small. Argentina is very focused on car exports, and we practically do not export cars to the United States”, he points out.
Understand the pricing
US President Donald Trump’s tariff came into effect in August 2025. By raising taxes on imported products, the United States government claims that it intends to protect the American economy, since, with taxation, Americans tend to manufacture products locally instead of purchasing them abroad.
In the Brazil case, which suffered one of the highest taxes, the American president also claimed that it was retaliation for Brazil’s treatment of former president Jair Bolsonaro, whom Trump considered to be persecuted, before being convicted by the Federal Supreme Court (STF), in September 2025, for an attempted coup d’état.
Since then, the Brazilian and American governments have been negotiating ways to seek agreements for the commercial partnership, including direct conversations between Trump and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
On the 20th, Trump removed additional taxation of 40% on 269 products249 of which are from the agricultural sector, such as meat and coffee.
“The effects of this removal will only be visible from December and January”, points out Icomex.
The vice-president and minister of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services, Geraldo Alckmin, calculates that 22% of exports to the United States remain subject to surcharges.
