The estimate for the 2022/23 harvest indicates a grain production of 312.2 million tons, 15% or 40.8 million tons higher than that obtained in 2021/22. The data is from third grain harvest surveydisclosed today (8) by the National Supply Company (Conab).
According to the agency, with the completion of the planting of the first harvest crops in December, attention will turn to the evolution of crops and the effects of climate behavior, which should define productivity. With respect to the previous estimate, announced in November, when 313 million tons of grains were projected, the data show an adjustment in the total volume due to lower corn productivity and reduction in rice area.
Even so, with the total planted area estimated at 77 million hectares, Brazilian agriculture maintains the growth trend observed in recent years, also with a record forecast, according to Conab. The result represents an increase of 3.3% or 2.49 thousand hectares over the 2021/22 crop area.
In the surveys carried out for this survey, the evolution of the planting of first-crop crops presents a slight delay. According to Conab, there was a natural caution on the part of producers in a climate scenario that features excessive rainfall and low temperatures, especially in part of the states in the South and Southeast regions. There are also water restrictions and low soil moisture in the Midwest Region and Matopiba (producing region that includes Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia). “Even so, the estimated production for the 2022/23 crop remains a record”, he estimates.
soy and corn
In the case of soybeans, the third estimate for the planted area, in the current cycle, points to a growth of 4.6% over the past harvest, totaling 43.4 million hectares. The completion of planting is scheduled for the end of December and weather conditions have been benefiting crops. The slight reduction in productivity was offset by increases in areas, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais. Thus, the soybean harvest should reach a record volume of 153.5 million tons, 22.2% or 27.9 million tons above that obtained in the previous harvest.
For corn, Conab forecasts a total production of 125.8 million tons in the 2022/23 harvest, with an expected increase of 11.2% compared to the previous harvest. The planting of corn first crop advanced in all cereal producing regions.
According to Conab, in Rio Grande do Sul the decrease and irregularity of rainfall in November, combined with high temperatures, caused symptoms of water deficit in the plants, affecting, mainly, the areas that are in the reproductive stage. In view of this, Conab maintains monitoring of crops to assess possible impacts, which may intensify the declines already registered in corn yields in the state.
Other cultures
Rice has an estimated area of 1.5 million hectares, a reduction of 9.5% compared to the previous harvest. Production is forecast at 10.4 million tons, with planting advancing in the country’s producing areas. Beans also point to a reduction of 2.3% in the total area to be sown. Total bean production in the country, including the three harvests, is estimated at 2.9 million tons.
Cotton should grow around 2.3% in the area to be sown, totaling 1.6 million hectares, with an expected production of 2.9 million tons of lint. For wheat, with the expectation of an increase of 11.5% in productivity and 11.6% of the cultivated area in relation to the previous harvest, this survey materializes a record production of 9.6 million tons of wheat, value 24, 4% higher than the previous cycle.
Marketplace
Market analyzes show that for soybeans in grain, there was a reduction in crushing estimates in 2023, from 51.43 million tons to 50.68 million tons. The reason for this, according to Conab, is that, in this survey, it was considered that the percentage of blending biodiesel with diesel in the first three months of 2023 will be 10%. In the previous estimate, the forecast was that this percentage would be 12% by March. With this expected reduction in grain processing, estimates of final soybean stocks in grains for the 2022/23 harvest increase from 5.28 million tons to 6 million tons.
As for corn, for the 2021/22 harvest, the highlight is the increase in export estimates to 41.5 million tons, considering the high volumes exported in November and the good expectations for December. Given this, carry-over stocks were adjusted to 7.1 million tonnes. For the 2022/23 harvest, Conab maintained the perspective of increased domestic corn consumption and projection of continued strong external demand for Brazilian corn, which, together with greater Brazilian production, will result in an 8.4% increase in exports.
Estimates for cotton remained stable in this third survey. The highlight is the 0.6% reduction in ending stocks, due to the reduction in production forecast for the 2022/23 harvest compared to the last survey. In comparison with the 2021/22 harvest, consumption in this 2022/23 harvest should be 2.1% higher and the final stock should also increase by 20.7%.
For rice, in relation to the previous survey, the data highlight the projection of a drop in exports from 1.3 million to 1.2 million tons and a reduction in carry-over stocks for the 2022/23 harvest. The bulletin points out that this movement occurs amid a projected scenario of lower grain availability, due to the lower forecast production and the likely scenario of better domestic prices. As a result, the outlook is for a slight retraction in the carry-over stock, moving from an estimated level of 2 million tons at the end of 2022 to 1.8 million tons at the end of 2023 (a reduction of 8% compared to that projected in the month previous).
For the wheat crop, which started in August 2022 and will end in July 2023, both production figures and domestic consumption figures were revised, referring to the use for seeds, due to the increase in planted area. The export estimate was also adjusted, changing from 2.7 million to 3 million tons. With the consolidation of the data, the Brazilian wheat crop should end with carry-over stock of approximately 1 million tons.
